CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-03-22T16:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-03-22T16:23ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45244/-1
CME Note: This somewhat asymmetric bright CME is visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2 for a few frames before a usual overnight data gap and in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. Its source is a significant filament eruption with associated brightening/dimming starting around 2026-03-22T15:30Z, followed by high rising post-eruptive arcades, as seen in GOES SUVI 304, 284, and 195 centered around S20E15, south of Active Region 14398, and seen as ejecta and opening of field lines seen in STEREO A EUV 195/403 on/close to the SE limb. It appears that there may be some SE deflection/directionality to it,. as it erupts and progresses outward in the GOES SUVI 284 field of view. There is a bright bulk front and a wider faint shock front seen in all three coronagraphs. | Arrival information: Increase in B_total from 3.88 nT to 7.21 nT increasing to a maximum of 10.19 nT. Solar wind speed increased from roughly 530 km/s to roughly 600 km/s. Minor increase in solar wind temperature and density were also observed. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME with ID 2026-03-22T16:23:00-CME-001 which was modeled to impact missions near Earth at 2026-03-25T08:55Z (+/- 7 hours).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-03-25T05:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-26T14:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.67 - 3.67
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction: SWPC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.9e Resolution: medium Ambient settings: a8b1 Ejecta settings: d4t1x1 WSA version: 2.2 GONG: mrbqs CME input parameters Time at 21.5Rs boundary: Radial velocity (km/s): Longitude (deg): Latitude (deg): Half-angular width (deg): Notes: Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2026 Mar 23 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... ...Open field lines and faint CME material originated from the vicinity of CH31, as seen in GOES CCOR-1 imagery at approximately 22/0645 UTC. A subsequent CME was observed in GOES CCOR-1 imagery beginning at 22/1715 UTC associated with a filament disappearance observed on GONG imagery. Initial modeling of these events indicates a glancing blow at Earth on 26 Mar, which is outside of the three-day forecast period, with a bulk of the material missing south and behind Earth's orbit. Solar Wind ...Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through the forecast period. CH HSS influences are expected to begin to wane on 24 Mar and continue a weakening trend through 25 Mar. Geospace .Forecast... Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are expected on 23 Mar in response to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of active conditions are expected on 24-25 Mar as negative polarity CH HSS influences continue, but gradually diminish.Lead Time: 56.92 hour(s)
Difference: -32.12 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-03-22T20:58Z
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